Suitable sites for built-up area expansion in Kamalamai municipality, Sindhuli district, Nepal

Samin Poudel; Shahnawaz Shahnawaz; Him Lal Shrestha

doi:10.6093/1970-9870/9968

Samin Poudel UNIGIS Kathmandu/UNIGIS Salzburg Kathmandu, Nepal/ University of Salzburg, Austria https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1562-0822
Shahnawaz Shahnawaz Department of Geoinformatics-Z_GIS University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6403-3528
Him Lal Shrestha UNIGIS Kathmandu Kathmandu Forestry College, Kathmandu, Nepal https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3452-7428

DOI: https://doi.org/10.6093/1970-9870/9968

Keywords: Built-up Area, Land Suitability Analysis, GIS, Land Use Land Cover

Abstract

Kamalamai municipality has witnessed significant built-up development in recent years but there has been very limited planning and regulation for controlling this trend. Haphazard built-up expansion may risk environmental sensitive areas and could expand towards areas lacking basic facilities. Identification of suitable areas for built-up development is critical to regulate future development in an efficient manner. The main objective of the study was to identify suitable sites for built-up expansion in Kamalamai municipality. Landsat images of 2001, 2016, and 2021 were used for Land Use Land Cover (LULC) trend analysis. Suitability analysis was done based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) pair-wise comparison. Multi-layer Preceptor (MLP) neural network was used for transition sub-modeling of each LULC class to built-up. Markov model was used for future urbanization modeling in combination with constraint/incentive to redirect the change in expansion suitable areas. During 2001 and 2021 the built-up had increased from 0.5% (1.09 Km²) to 1.9% (3.95 Km²). The model predicted the built-up to increase to 2.5% (5.13 Km²) by 2031, 3.3% (6.69 Km²) by 2041, and 4% (8.25 Km²) by 2051. The region has significantly urbanized since 2016 mainly contributed by in-migration and is predicted to follow the trend in the future.

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Author Biographies

Samin Poudel, UNIGIS Kathmandu/UNIGIS Salzburg Kathmandu, Nepal/ University of Salzburg, Austria

He was a MSc Geographic Information Science and Systems (GIS) student at University of Salzburg (UNIGIS program in collaboration with Kathmandu Forestry College). His research interests are Green Spaces, Land Use Land Cover Analysis, Urban Studies, and Remote Sensing. He is currently an Erasmus + scholar.

Shahnawaz Shahnawaz, Department of Geoinformatics-Z_GIS University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria

He has an MA in Geography and Ph.D in Regional Development. He started teaching at the University of Salzburg, Austria in 2000 and assumed the position of Director (S & SE Asia), UNIGIS International in 2002. Academically addressing a range of topics related to Environment and Development, GIScience Education, Distance Learning, Multi-disciplinary Applications of GISystems & Remote Sensing etc. He has also established international cooperation for GIScience education with numerous leading universities in Southeast Asia and started UNIGIS joint-study programmes with many of them. He is also adjunct / visiting faculty at 4 reputed universities in the region and implemented several projects focussed on capacity building in Geospatial education and research. Among other activities, his major aim is to integrate all the major countries of Southeast Asia in the UNIGIS International network.

Him Lal Shrestha, UNIGIS Kathmandu Kathmandu Forestry College, Kathmandu, Nepal

He is working as UNIGIS Programme Coordinator at Kathmandu Forestry College, Kathmandu Nepal. He has done his PhD in Environment Science in 2015 from Kathmandu University, Nepal. His areas of doctorate is quantification of land use change, forest carbon and soil organic carbon and its relation to the climate change and livelihood of the people. He has also expertise on forestry practices and application of geospatial technologies in the natural resource management. He has wide experience working on the GIS and Remote sensing applications in forestry sector. He has published number of journal articles related to his competency on the GIScience and Forestry Science and their application in different fields. He has also exposure on the teaching learning, research and mentoring to the graduate and under graduate students. He is also competent on training and facilitation specifically on GIS/RS and its application in forestry sector. His areas of interest is GIS, Remote Sensing, MRV for REDD+, Biomass estimation, valuation and mapping of ecosystem services, climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategy, soil and forest carbon quantification.

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